- I went to the company site and from there I got that quarterly median net margin (earnings/revenue) for the last 20 quarters is 13.3%.
- The 2 projects (Maranhão and Piauí) will add 3 million tons of hardwood pulp. As international price is now at US$ 870.00, the investments will earn US$ 2,6 billion revenue.
- That revenue, at historically net margin will yield earnings of about US$ 350 millions.
- Orbe said (I failed to confirm this number in the company site) that this investments will consume about US$ 7 billions. (I saw now in company site that the estimated total value of investments for the 2 projects is US$ 5.3 billions)
- So the expected return on new investments would be miserable 5% (with new company data it jumps to 6.6%).
Probably I misunderstood or forget something. However, if my figures are closer to what would be the expected returns, I'm certainly out of this shit.
9 comments:
Current ROE for SUZB is 8.9%, but earnings are inflated by fixed assets sales. So it's probably that my estimates for future return are quite fair. It's a ridiculous return.
Or, putting it in another way, for each dollar invested, company can generate just above 50 cents in NET REVENUE (Net Revenue/Equity=52%)
Did you give up of SUZB5?
Yes. ROE is the most important quality indicator and SUZB5 lacks it.
The relation FCF/Price is much higher for SUZB5 than for KLBN4. I would prefer KLBN4 for the same price, but SUZB5 is ridiculously cheap.
Infomoney:Goldman Sachs rebaixa para venda recomendação das ações da suzano
O banco também revisou para baixo suas estimativas para o Ebtida (geração operacional de caixa) da companhia entre 2011 e 2013, para R$ 1,16 bilhão, R$ 1,25 bilhão e R$ 1,43 bilhão...
Well, the 1,16B EBITDA forecast means that the market value is only 2.7 times the EBITDA.
They can say Sell!!!!!! while they are buying for themselves.
Ahahahah!
That's probably the case.
I don't give a shit for what they say.
Suzano reduzirá custos e decide sobre venda de ativos em 2012
Valor: Suzano considera adiar fábrica do Maranhão
Post a Comment
We encourage your feedback and we will take your comments into serious consideration. However, you must be warned that any comment that does not follow the blog philosophy (Value Investing and Behavioural Finance) will be promptly removed.