I tried to estimate normal cash flow for Klabin:
But I'm not sure about 3 points. Let me know what is your opinion.
- I've included back significant amount of 145 millions a year related to deferred taxes. Of course that amount is not cash that was consumed in that year, but, in the future, that amount has to be paid? If so, I think it's not correct to sum it now.
- I've deducted a staggering value of 315 million a year due to cambial changes. Again, it's very simple to understand that is not cash earned. On the other hand, when dollar weakens and company "earns" financial cambial change, company loses revenue on sold goods, and vice versa. So company benefits of weaken dollar accounting cambial changes, but loses revenue. Is it correct to simply discard cambial changes from the cash flow statements?
- Significant amount of cash generated (190 millions per year) comes from assets reduction related to the account recoverable taxes. That's the explanation you can find in the notes to the financial statements:
That is, although I've not included this amount, it should be added, since it is reducing the value of the investments paid in 2007.
Em virtude do plano de expansão (Projeto MA1100, realizado nos últimos anos), a Companhia durante aquele período de investimentos reteve os impostos e contribuições decorrentes das aquisições para o ativo imobilizado permitidos pela legislação vigente para compensação futura.A Companhia, com base em análises e projeção orçamentária aprovada pela administração não prevê riscos de não realização desses créditos tributários.O PIS/COFINS e o ICMS mantidos no curto prazo estão previstos para serem compensados com esses mesmos tributos a recolher nos próximos 12 meses, conforme previsão da administração.
What you think about?
8 comments:
I would add the tax credits earned on the aquisition of capital goods.
What are the final numbers after adding this?
You can add more 190 per year, on average. So FCF would be 307 + 190, roughly 500 millions a year.That's more than 10% yield.
But I'm still not sure about adding deferred taxes.
I would not add deferred taxes.
I also bought at 4.89
Have you read anything that could have propelled KLBN4 to 6,19 in short time?
Perhaps the fact that KLBN will buyback about 10% of its outstanding shares.
http://www.valor.com.br/empresas/1071406/klabin-quer-montar-nova-fabrica-no-pr
An important difference beetween KLBN and the others (FIBR and SUZB) is the focus in long fiber (pinus). This fiber is used in packing an in card paper.
Valor: Klabin decide até março futuro da nova fábrica
What I like about KLBN is that it is not too focused on short fibers (eucalipt). There's too much capacity buildup in short fibers projected to the end of the decade, but I heard little about long fibers.
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