PETR4 - Petrobras

Some thoughts about Petrobras investment plan for 2011-2015 (all numbers are in BRL billions):

• PETR plans to invest in the next 5 years 389,00;
• It will have to pay more 37,50 in dividends (considering 25% of earnings of 30,00);
• Cash flow stood for about 50,00 in the last 3 years. So it will generate 250,00 in the next 5 years;
• So cash consumption till 2015 will be 176,50;
• Since current debt amount 65,00, net debt will be 241,50 in 2015;
• Increase in production will be 44%. If cash flows follows the same percentage, CF in 2015 will be 72,00;
• Earnings will grow to 43,20, so dividends will be 10,80;
• In 2015 FCF will be 61,20, less investments in maintenance, that is not negligible, but I don't know how much is;

Considering that the premises are to risky, associated with the risk of the high debt, I definitely will buy no shares for now.