Thursday, March 10, 2011

And how much would I pay for BBAS3

I took the last 3 years (12 quarters) of BBAS3 and I abandoned  the 2 best ones, because them are clearly diverging from the mean (over BRL 4 billion each one, probably because of CIEL3 and actuarial pension plan tricks). The annual mean for the remaining 10 quarters gives a net earnings of BRL 9 billion.


So I considered 50% of this amount as being cash generated, growthing at 5% for the next 10 years and 3% from there on. I discounted at a rate of 10.1% (real rate, considering SELIC 1% per month).
The target price resulting are 29.10, with a P/E slightly above 9. 


Taking into account that I like to be (too) conservative with the parameters (earnings, growth and discount rate) I only demand about 20% or less of safety margin, so I'll start to buy when (and if) the share comes around 25,00.

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