Friday, March 9, 2012

The future's not ours to see

Orbe, an asset management, had Hering (HGTX3) in its portfolio since 2006 to the beginning of 2008. Since they sold it, Hering has been a spectacular growth, both operational and in price, as you can see below (numbers are approximated):

Revenue                 225%
EBIT                      650%
Income              >1.000%
Price                  >1.500%

I'm not blaming them to miss the huge increase in prices, but not to foresee the amazing operational change that was about to occur. That is:
  • They claimed they have studied a lot the company before buying it
  • During the time Orbe had HGTX they had direct access to the managements
So, they are professional focused in value investing, that knew a lot about the company and could talk about it with the management, and even so, failed to foresee one of the most brilliant performance!

As someone once said, it's very hard to predict, specially when it's about the future.

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1 comments:

cessna said...

That's why I'm not very inclined to sell anything.

They probably found something even better to buy, or thought they had found.

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