Wednesday, January 4, 2012

My Value Investing - Supplement

I'm just complementing my previous related post.

Annualized TIR

That's my total annual return on stock market:

Annualized TIR  Portfolio Ibov Diff
Total Period - From 2005 to 2011 32,6% 13,0% 19,6%
Value Investing - From 2006 to 2011 34,5% 9,2% 25,3%

Dividends

For the total realized gain (dividends + realized capital gain), dividends corresponds for 22,5%. That is, for each $100 made, $22.5 was dividends (I'm considering here also JCP) received.
Dividends have been playing an important role in the last years, as can be seen in the table below:

Year Ibov Port. Capital Yield
2005 40,7% 20,0% 16,9% 2,7%
2006 32,8% 60,9% 58,1% 1,7%
2007 43,8% 68,8% 67,0% 1,1%
2008 -41,2% -22,6% -24,7% 2,7%
2009 82,7% 102,2% 89,8% 6,5%
2010 1,0% 20,5% 12,9% 6,8%
2011 -14,4% 18,7% 9,6% 8,3%

So dividends have become more important in total return, as yield grew fast since 2008.

Amount Invested in Stock Market

This graph is very interesting. It shows total return of Ibov since 2008, when I started to measure it (red line, right axis) versus percentage of my personal equity invested in the stock market (blue line, left axis):

(click to enlarge)

You can clearly see the inversely relationship: when Ibov drops, I increase the share of my equity invested in the stock market. And vice versa.

That's behavioral finance applied!

Total Equity Return

Since 2008 I'm also measuring total return (not just on stock market), as you can see below:

Composition of Total Return 
Due to salary savings 59%
Due to investments in stock market 31%
Due to investments in fixed income 10%

That is, salary saving plays an important role yet.

That's it!

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5 comments:

sid said...

Another interesting metric is that since 2006 Ibov had 46% (of 72 months) of negative monthly return. I had just 26%.

cessna said...

I think the most important factor that caused your superior results, when compared to Ibovespa or the Mutual Funds is timing. You bought stocks when they were cheap and sold when they were expensive. The professional money managers can't do that. They are usually drowned in cash when the market is bullish and dry when the market is cheap. The graph in this post is your biggest strategy.

sid said...

That is, I (you) buy when prices, in general, offers a nice margin of safety.

sid said...

Since the beginning of 2006, the annual return of:

My Portfolio: 34.5%
IGPM + 6%: 12.3%
85% CDI: 9.9%
Ibovespa: 9.2%

Cheers to the couples Value Investing and Behavioral Finance!

sid said...

Another metric of my performance:
I was wondering how much I would have if I never had invested in the stock market.
To do this, I calculated, for each month, the difference between what I got with stocks with what I would got with 85% of CDI (IRPF excluded), and then summed it all up.
Doing so I came to a conclusion that my net asset would be 25.8% lower than it is now.
It's not a big difference as my annual TIR of 32.6% would suggest, but I think it will have a huge impact in the long run, as it will be capitalized year by year.
I think that the not so big difference I got is because I usually invest 30%-50% in the stock market and because my net asset is growing (so the difference from CDI on the beginning it's not so representative now).

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