Year............................2007.....2008.....2009.....2010....2011(est)
Cash earnings...............1.636...1.587.....1.503....1.390....2.018
Changes in working K....-40.....-40.......-40......-40......-40
CFO.............................1.596...1.547...1.463.....1.350.....1.978
CFI.............................-465....-565.....-866.....-947.....-2.060
FCF..............................1131.... 982.....597......403.......-82
Assumptions:
discount rate: 7%/year
minimum upside: 100%
base CFO: 1.500
assumed CFI: -1.000
base FCF: 500
growth for 10 years: 6%
growth thereafter: 3%
Present value: 16.471
Market value CPLE3 (jan/6/2012): 8.702
Upside: 89%
Target price: 30,10
Yesterday closing price: 31,80
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Copel Free Cash Flow
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7 comments:
Valor: Copel aprova investimento de 2,2 bi para 2012
Valor: Copel planeja elevar em 38% a capacidade de geração até 2014
I'm not too much interested in this kind of company, but I'll take a look when possible.
The exposition of copel to the 2015 deadline is minimum.
The exposure to the 2015 is minimum regarding to electricity generation, but the distribution concession is due in 2015.
Also most transmission concessions are due in 2015.
With you assumed CFI, the base FCF would be yielding now less than 6%.
It's to low for this kind of company. I don't like it.
I'm not going further.
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